Daily Briefing

Key Takeaways

• Russia launched one of its largest combined strikes of the war on the night of July 29–30 — 74 missiles and 284 drones — with a Kh-101 cruise missile penetrating ~20 km into Polish (NATO) territory, crashing near Tarnawa-Kolonia in Lublin voivodeship after six minutes in Polish airspace; 22 sources corroborate the airspace violation.
• A Russian ballistic missile destroyed a Kyiv drone factory owned by US-registered firm Terminal Autonomy (Delaware), marking the first known Russian strike on a US-owned company in Ukraine; separately, a North Korean ballistic missile is believed to have killed six family members in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign continues to bite: the Ryazan refinery halted processing for ~two weeks, the Lukoil-Perm refinery was struck and confirmed by Ukraine's General Staff, and FT/S&P Global data indicate >30% of Russia's actual refining capacity is now offline.
• Trump told the Financial Times he is 'not sure' the US will license Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles — walking back a statement made at the NATO Ankara summit two weeks ago — while his envoys Kushner and Wittkoff are set to visit Ukraine for the first time in coming days.
• Ukraine lost another F-16 fighter during a combat mission (pilot safely ejected, 18 sources corroborate); Ukrainian air defenses claimed 55 of 74 missiles and 265 of 284 drones downed during the mass strike.