Daily Briefing

Key Takeaways

• Russia struck Kyiv with ballistic missiles for the fifth time in July, causing fires in Holosiivskyi and Darnytskyi districts; Ukraine retaliated with one of its deepest drone strikes of the war, hitting the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan (~1,400 km from the border) and the Afipskyi refinery in Krasnodar Krai.
• Ten European nations — including France, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine — formally established an Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition at the Élysée Palace; France simultaneously granted Ukraine production licenses for Aster-30, SCALP, and AASM Hammer munitions, and confirmed a 16-Rafale purchase deal.
• Ukrainian drone strikes have driven Russian oil refinery throughput to a 21-year low of 3.91 million barrels/day (June 2026), with 24 of 34 major refineries hit in the last 100 days — a fuel crisis now prompting COVID-era rationing measures in Russian regions.
• Trump signaled support for the bipartisan Graham Russia sanctions bill days after the senator's death, while the EU and UK jointly sanctioned Russia's cyber-war complex including VK and GRU officers — the EU's largest-ever sanctions tranche.
• The EU plans to end automatic temporary protection for Ukrainian men of military age from March 2027, and Poland's Defense Minister publicly called on Ukrainian men in Poland to return home — compounding Ukraine's mobilization pressure heading into a forecast severe winter.