Daily Briefing

Key Takeaways

• Ukraine launched its largest overnight drone salvo in recent weeks — 376+ UAVs per Russian MoD — striking the Ilsky refinery (Krasnodar), Taganrog port, and fuel depots in Azov, while Ukrainian SBS claims a running total of ~49 Russian shadow-fleet tankers hit in under a week, compounding a fuel crisis the FT estimates has knocked out up to 40% of Russian refining capacity.
• Russian forces have consolidated control of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk, but Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reports Russian offensive tempo has more than halved — active axes down from 13 to 6–7 — though Russia is planning to expand pressure in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and widen its northern buffer zone.
• Reuters sources inside the Kremlin report Putin has rejected ceasefire proposals and is planning a general mobilization and major new offensive in the coming months, directly contradicting Czech President Pavel's warning that Ukraine has roughly two months to reach a settlement.
• A joint investigation by The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde (4 sources corroborated) reveals China proposed supplying Russia with UAVs, loitering munitions, AI systems, and anti-Starlink technology for battlefield testing in Ukraine — the most detailed public evidence yet of Sino-Russian military-technical cooperation tied directly to the war.
• Ukraine's air-defense gap against ballistic missiles remains acute: overnight intercept rate was 83% overall (114/137 drones), but only 40% of ballistic targets were shot down; Zelensky confirmed a new PAC-3 batch is incoming while Poland's defence minister says domestic Patriot production for Ukraine could begin within weeks.